What this kit does and why it helps

An EOR is a paid re-mark of your IELTS results. If any score changes, many centers refund the fee. The risk is time and money if your score does not move. The EOR Win/Skip Calculator converts this messy choice into numbers you can see. You set your current bands, the target you need, the refund and fee, and your best estimate of how likely Writing or Speaking might increase by +0.5 or +1.0. The sheet then:

• Enumerates 25 Writing and Speaking outcomes from −1.0 to +1.0 in 0.5 steps
• Calculates the probability of each combined outcome
• Checks if each outcome meets your overall target and your minimum per skill
• Sums a total success probability and an expected post-EOR overall band
• Factors in refund rules to compute effective expected fee
• Outputs a clear recommendation: WIN EOR or SKIP EOR

Reading and Listening rarely change because they are machine or double marked. The sheet focuses on Writing and Speaking, while still showing you the gap to minimums in all four skills.

Quick start: how to use the sheet

1. Open the Inputs tab. Enter Listening, Reading, Writing, and Speaking bands, your target overall, and any minimum per component you must meet.
2. Set money values. Fill the EOR fee in your local currency and choose Yes or No for Refund if any score changes. Then enter a rough Value of success such as the monetary impact of meeting a scholarship or visa date.
3. Enter probabilities. Provide your best estimate for exactly +0.5 and exactly +1.0 in Writing and in Speaking, plus small chances of −0.5 or −1.0. Leave the remainder as implicit zero change.
4. Open the Decision tab. Read the probability of success, expected overall after EOR, effective expected fee, and the final recommendation.
5. Open Scenarios. See the 25 cases the sheet evaluates. Each row shows the combined Writing and Speaking change, the joint probability, the rounded new overall, and whether that case clears your target and minimums.

Tip for readers who like proof: the overall band is rounded to the nearest 0.5 using a standard rule. The sheet shows the required total sum to reach your target after rounding, so you can see the hard gap.

How to set realistic probabilities

Your numbers matter more than the tool. Keep them honest and based on evidence.

• Writing usually has the best chance to move. A typical starting range might be 20 to 35 percent for exactly +0.5 and 3 to 8 percent for exactly +1.0, with a very small chance of a drop if your script was generously marked.
• Speaking can move, often a bit less than Writing. You might start with 15 to 30 percent for +0.5 and 2 to 6 percent for +1.0, again with a small negative risk.
• Reading and Listening are not part of the probability model because change is extremely rare. Treat their chance as near zero.
• Downside risk is not zero. If your Writing is clearly below the band border for task response, coherence, or grammar range, add a tiny probability for −0.5.
• Calibrate with evidence. Use your recent mock marks from trusted graders, a Writing band report with criteria notes, or Speaking recordings checked by an experienced trainer. If your Writing samples cluster at 6.5 and your exam returned 6.0, a +0.5 probability can be higher. If your samples cluster below, be conservative.

The calculator assumes independence between Writing and Speaking outcomes and treats the five options per skill as exclusive: −1.0, −0.5, 0, +0.5, +1.0. That is a reasonable simplification for making a decision.

The decision formula in plain English

The sheet computes three numbers that matter.

1. Probability of success after EOR
   This is the total probability that your new overall band (rounded) meets or exceeds your target and that all four skills meet your minimum requirements. It is computed by summing the joint probabilities of every scenario that clears both conditions.
2. Effective expected fee
   If your center refunds the fee when any component changes, your expected cost is lower than the sticker price. The sheet multiplies the fee by the probability that nothing changes, which is the only situation where you actually lose the full fee.
3. Expected net value
   This combines your success value and effective fee. The rule is simple:
   Expected net value = Value of success × Probability of success − Effective expected fee.
   If positive, the sheet prints WIN EOR. If negative, it prints SKIP EOR.

You can change the success value to reflect urgency. A hard visa deadline next month may be worth a higher number than a distant goal. You can also run a sensitivity check by halving or raising your probabilities to see how the recommendation reacts.

Reading the Decision tab like an analyst

• Current overall band shows your rounded score now.
• Required total sum tells you the minimum total of L + R + W + S you need to round up to the target. For a target of 7.0, the average must reach at least 6.75.
• Total sum gap is how much L + R + W + S needs to increase. If the gap is 0.5, then a +0.5 in either Writing or Speaking is often enough, assuming minima are met. If the gap is 1.0, then you need +1.0 in one skill or +0.5 in both.
• Probability of success after EOR is the combined chance that one of those paths occurs and your minimums are satisfied.
• Expected overall after EOR is a probability-weighted average. It is not a guarantee, but it helps you see the center of your outcome range.
• P any score change is useful because it drives the refund effect.
• Recommendation is the bottom line. Treat it as a calculated nudge, not a law.

The bottom of the tab includes a small Band gap analysis for each skill so you do not forget that a low Writing or Speaking minimum can block an overall win.

Worked examples you can copy

Example 1 — Borderline overall, minima already met

• Current bands: L 7.5, R 7.0, W 6.5, S 6.5. Current overall 7.0.
• Requirement: overall 7.5, no minima. Fee 12,000. Refund Yes. Value of success 200,000.
• Probabilities set: Writing +0.5 at 0.30, +1.0 at 0.05, negatives 0.02 and 0.00. Speaking +0.5 at 0.25, +1.0 at 0.05, negatives 0.02 and 0.00.

Analysis
Required total sum for 7.5 is 29.0. You have 27.5, so the gap is 1.5. You cannot reach 7.5 with a single +0.5. You need either +1.0 and +0.5 together, or a large +1.5 split across Writing and Speaking. The calculator will show a modest success probability, often under 10 percent with these inputs. If Value of success is high and the refund applies, WIN EOR might still appear, but many users will see SKIP EOR unless they raise the +1.0 probabilities.

Reading takeaway
This is the classic case where people hope for 7.5 with only +0.5 in Writing. The numbers show why it is not enough.

Example 2 — Minima block the path

• Current bands: L 7.5, R 7.5, W 6.0, S 7.0. Current overall 7.0.
• Requirement: overall 7.0 with minimum 6.5 in each skill. Fee 12,000. Refund Yes. Value of success 100,000.
• Probabilities: Writing +0.5 at 0.35, +1.0 at 0.08, small negative risk 0.02, 0.00. Speaking small positive at 0.10, 0.02.

Analysis
Overall target is already met, but Writing minimum 6.5 is not. Your success requires only a +0.5 in Writing. The sheet will show a success probability near your Writing +0.5 chance, adjusted for the tiny negative risk. The effective fee is low if refund applies because almost any change triggers refund. Expected net value is likely positive. Recommendation: WIN EOR.

Reading takeaway
Minima can turn a low-risk EOR into a clear win even when the overall band already looks fine.

Example 3 — Strong chance but no refund

• Current bands: L 7.0, R 7.0, W 6.5, S 6.5. Target overall 7.0 with minimum 6.5. Refund No. Fee 25,000. Value of success 60,000.
• Probabilities: Writing +0.5 at 0.30, +1.0 at 0.05. Speaking +0.5 at 0.25, +1.0 at 0.05.

Analysis
You already have overall 7.0. The value of success here might be low because you only want small insurance against an internal cutoff, or you are testing if a higher overall is reachable. With no refund, the effective fee equals the fee. Success value 60,000 times a moderate probability may still beat 25,000, but the margin is thinner. The recommendation will depend on your inputs. Many users will see SKIP EOR unless the value is truly worth it.

Reading takeaway
Refund policy changes the economics. Read that line carefully.

How to read the Scenarios tab

The sheet lists all combinations of Writing and Speaking moves in 0.5 steps from −1.0 to +1.0. For each row you will see:

• W change, S change
• Joint probability computed as the product of Writing and Speaking exclusive probabilities for that step
• New W, New S
• New overall after rounding to the nearest 0.5
• Meets minima flag for all four skills
• Success flag when both the new overall and the minima conditions pass

You can scan for the rows that actually deliver success. Often there are only two or three real paths, such as +0.5 in Writing or +0.5 in both. The Decision tab shows a quick note on these paths for a fast mental check.

How to set the Value of success

Think of it as a rough utility number. It should capture the personal impact of a successful EOR:

• A scholarship band cutoff that unlocks funding
• A visa application window that closes soon
• An internal university minimum for a specific course
• A job offer that depends on a band letter

If the benefit is very time sensitive, the value can be high. If you can simply retake the exam next month without penalty, the value may be lower. The recommendation will swing based on this input, which is the point. The calculator is here to reflect your situation, not to force one answer.

Good practice for Reading before you press submit

Even though the EOR focuses on Writing and Speaking, your Reading should guide your self check. Read the public band descriptors and your own writing samples like an examiner. Focus on:

• Task response and coherence in Writing. If your task 2 thesis was unclear or you missed a requirement like an overview in task 1, set probabilities lower.
• Lexical resource and grammar range. If your language has a range with few serious errors, you can justify a higher +0.5 probability.
• Speaking recordings. Listen for pace, hesitation, and range. If fluency and grammar were stable and your examiner’s questions kept deepening, a +0.5 is more plausible.
• Consistency across mocks. If three recent scripts were graded 6.5 by strict markers, and the exam returned 6.0, you have evidence to raise +0.5.

You can also add a small probability of −0.5 if your evidence suggests a weak day. The calculator handles that risk.

Mistakes and edge cases to avoid

• Assuming +0.5 always comes. EOR is not a free upgrade. Keep probabilities anchored to evidence.
• Ignoring minima. An impressive overall jump is useless if Writing 6.0 still blocks a program that needs 6.5. The sheet checks this for you.
• Forgetting refund rules. Not all centers refund the fee for any change. Set the Refund field accurately.
• Double counting probability. Do not treat +0.5 and +1.0 as overlapping. In the sheet they are exclusive options. If you think +1.0 could happen, reduce +0.5 a little so both plus zero change sum to 100 percent or less.
• Setting impossible values. Do not let probabilities add to more than 100 percent per skill. The sheet assumes the remainder is the chance of no change.
• Chasing 7.5 from 7.0 with only one +0.5. The math of rounding does not support that path. Check the total sum gap line.
• Expecting Reading or Listening to change. Treat their EOR probability as near zero and focus on Writing and Speaking.

A 7-minute mini method to choose your inputs

1. Collect evidence. One graded Writing task 2 and one task 1, plus a Speaking recording with a short transcript.
2. Write three strengths and three weaknesses. Use the official criteria words, for example paragraphing, referencing, grammatical control.
3. Decide your border. Note whether your exam band sits 0.5 below your consistent mock results or not.
4. Assign probabilities.
   • If your evidence is strong and consistent, set Writing +0.5 at 0.30 to 0.40.
   • If your script had one visible weakness, set 0.20 to 0.30.
   • For +1.0, rarely exceed 0.08 unless two criteria were clearly under-scored.
   • For Speaking, mirror the pattern, usually a bit lower.
5. Set a small negative risk at 0.01 to 0.03 if you fear a generous mark.
6. Run the Decision tab and adjust only if your numbers were emotional rather than evidence based.

Case study then lessons

Case 1 — Writing 6.0 to 6.5 for a program minimum

Mina needed overall 7.0 and minimum 6.5 in all skills. She had L 7.5, R 7.0, W 6.0, S 7.0. Her fee was 12,000 and refund was Yes. Value of success was 150,000 because the program deadline was tight. She set Writing +0.5 at 0.35, +1.0 at 0.05, and tiny negative at 0.02. Speaking changes were low. The sheet gave about 34 percent success probability, high P any change, and low effective fee. Recommendation: WIN EOR. Her result came back W 6.5, overall unchanged at 7.0, fee refunded.

Case 2 — Chasing 7.5 from 7.0 with no minima pressure

Zahid had L 7.5, R 7.0, W 6.5, S 7.0. He wanted 7.5 to feel safe for future plans. Fee 25,000, refund No, value 40,000. He set Writing +0.5 at 0.25, +1.0 at 0.05, Speaking similar. The gap to 7.5 was 1.5, which demanded +1.0 and +0.5 or better across W and S. Success probability was under 8 percent. Expected net value was negative. Recommendation: SKIP EOR. He saved the fee and booked a targeted retake.

Lessons

• When minima block, EOR can be high value even with modest probabilities.
• When you are two steps away from a higher overall and refund does not apply, the economics rarely favor EOR.
• Numbers bring calm. Decisions made from the grid age better than gut feelings.

What changes when your center refunds the fee

If refund applies when any component changes, your expected cost shrinks to Fee × P(no change). In practice:

• High P any change plus high Value of success tilts the decision toward WIN.
• Low P any change and low Value tilts toward SKIP.
• If you are on the fence, try a conservative pass: halve your +0.5 and +1.0 probabilities and check whether the recommendation still holds. If it flips, treat the decision as marginal and consider retaking instead.

Reading-first checklist for EOR decisions

Do

• Read your Writing like an examiner and cite criteria in notes
• Use evidence from 2 to 3 graded samples, not one lucky essay
• Enter probabilities as exclusive values that leave room for no change
• Set realistic Value of success tied to dates and outcomes
• Check the minima line so a small block does not spoil a big win

Avoid

• Assuming a +0.5 will arrive because friends got it
• Overweighting Speaking if your recording shows frequent hesitation or short answers
• Ignoring refund rules or deadline risks
• Treating the recommendation as fate rather than a reasoned guide
• Forgetting to plan a retake path if you decide to skip

What is inside the workbook

• Inputs tab with all fields and sensible defaults for first use
• Decision tab with success probability, expected overall, refund-aware cost, and a clear recommendation
• Scenarios tab that lists the 25 W-S outcomes so you can read the map of paths to win
• Guide tab with compact instructions and notes on assumptions

It uses plain formulas only. You can audit or customize it easily. If you prefer Google Sheets, you can import the file and the logic will carry over.

Glossary

• EOR — Enquiry on Results, a formal paid re-mark
• SuccessValue — your personal monetary estimate of a successful outcome
• Effective expected fee — fee times the chance nothing changes when a refund is available for any change
• Exclusive probability — chance of exactly one outcome such as +0.5 without overlap with +1.0
• Joint probability — chance of a Writing outcome and a Speaking outcome happening together
• Paths to win — combinations of improvements that clear overall target and minima, for example +0.5 in Writing alone

Next steps

1. Download the sheet and enter your numbers.
2. Read the Decision tab and the three lines near the top: Probability of success, Effective expected fee, Recommendation.
3. Change only one thing at a time and see how the output reacts. Do a sensitivity check by halving your probabilities to test robustness.
4. If the result says WIN, submit your EOR with a calm mind. If it says SKIP, design a targeted retake plan and move forward.

Use the calculator like a serious reader uses a text. Ask for proof. Let the numbers tell the story. Then choose with confidence.